This week two things occurred in iDOL Street that were interesting enough for fans to start making crazy predictions and engage in completely unsubstantiated speculation and rumor mongering. [Umm, I’m pretty sure it’s just you making crazy predictions and causing trouble. Everyone else on the internet is completely normal. And I don’t know what rumor mongering means, but it sounds weird.] I don’t know what it means either, but I thought it would make me sound smart. [You thought using the word “mongering” would make you sound smart?]
Anyway, as I was saying, this week two things occurred in iDOL Street that were interesting enough for fans to start making crazy predictions and engage in completely unsubstantiated speculation and rumor mongering. First was the dismissal of Ayaka Kawai, a member of Street-sei‘s Nagoya team. This literally, figuratively, and literally came out of nowhere and is shocking because she was a front-runner for the fourth iDOL Street group. I had to punch someone in the face to make sure I wasn’t dreaming. The second was a teaser video that aired at Gocchan’s graduation concert two days ago, which according to a fan who attended, seemed to imply that a new member will be joining SUPER☆GiRLS.
The current Street-sei front-runners
I previously ranked the ten members who I think are considered by the producers to be the most likely candidates (Reminder: these aren’t the members I necessarily like; they’re just the girls I think are on the fast track to make the group). [In other words, you don’t like some of them!] I removed #9 and 10 though, because I forgot why I included them. Hey, no one’s perfect. [Speaking of rankings, didn’t you previously lock Misa-misa for PASSPO?] You’re bringing that up again? Don’t forget that immediately after Koume graduated from Party Rockets I predicted that she would join SUPER☆GiRLS.* [No you didn’t! You predicted that she would join DLH or Street-sei and only later predicted she would join SUPER☆GiRLS.] My prediction was still accurate though and several months in advance. [You also predicted that Mano Erina would “reverse graduate.” That’s not even a real thing.] It is a real thing! It just hasn’t happened yet. Anyway, I also predicted Sara would join GEM, two months before she was even added as a candidate member. [Ok, you win! That was GEMazing!!!]
The current Street-sei front-runners
If my rankings are accurate, Ayaka was in a good position to make the group, or at least make the “starting lineup,” assuming they repeated what they did with GEM. (Before GEM officially debuted, they had 13 “starting” members competing for a spot. A few months later, three more Street-sei members joined the unofficial lineup, before the final lineup was chosen).
You may be thinking, “This is boring! Where are the CraAAaZYY predictions and rumor whatever-you-called-it?” Well, this is where it get’s interesting, because even though Ayaka Kawai was probably a front-runner for the group she is *wait for it* totally mediocre! She can’t sing, and is average in practically every idol category: looks, personality, and talent. I’m going to play devil’s advocate and argue that her being terminated is actually a GOOD THING for the fourth group! Why? Because a slot just opened up for someone that isn’t her!
The reason Ayaka was a front runner in the first place was because she was (1) popular with fans and (2) the second-longest tenured member of Street-sei [technically tied with Saku, who is the only other remaining 3rd gen member. Haachin (Hazuki) is 2nd gen and has been in the group the longest]. Popularity and tenure aren’t exactly logical reasons for anyone to be included in anything, but they were the type of reasons that could force the hand of the producers. Which meant there was already going to be at least one average member in the lineup. I have no idea why she was let go, but it certainly provided them a convenient way to resolve the dilemma of including her in the group.
Most importantly, every single talented, yet unpopular Street-sei member instantly increased their odds at making the group. This includes members like Riko, Narumi, and Fuka. [AKA members you like!] Yeah, I like talented members. [Oh. Yeah, so do I. *grumble grumble*]
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- THE LEADER
Baseless speculation on the new SUPER☆GiRLS member
Even though I haven’t watched the teaser video which evidently hints at a new member, I’m going to allow myself to speculate on Gocchan’s replacement. I mean, what else is there to write about? [The Chubbiness articles you were supposed to finish last month?] These are my candidates, which I admit are extremely unlikely, but what else is there to write about? [That research paper that’s due on March 9 that you haven’t started yet?] Oh yeah. I’ll start that once I finish the Chubbiness articles.
1. Saori
Two words: reverse-graduation!
2. Rihona
Two words: reverse-graduation! There have been a lot of graduations so far this year, but I’d rather remember this year as the year of the “reverse-graduation.” The potential for her to reverse-graduate is much higher than Saori’s, but obviously Saori would be a better fit for the group. [Umm, that was 49 words.]
3. Haachin
I’m going to include her in every prediction until she joins a group.
If any of them joined, my interest in SUPER☆GiRLS would be completely resuscitated. Is there some sort of idol god that I need to sacrifice a goat to in order to make this happen?
SUPER GiRL Talk 
Ayaka being popular is NO reason??? Why is she popular anyway if she has neither talent nor personality?
Two times mentioning Party Rockets? Great!
But what about a reverse graduation of PASSPO Makochan? ;)
She has one of those childish, sassy personalities where she enjoys making life difficult for the older members. It was cute at times. And she’s young. IDOL Street’s producer is notorious for pushing young members. She wasn’t the worst candidate, but I do feel that if she were to be included, it would have been at the expense of someone more qualified.
I imagine Makochan is too busy taking taking naps to reverse graduate. And the remaining members have to agree to the reverse graduation. I wonder if they would. That’s why reverse graduations are veeery tricky and difficult to pull off. The remaining members in S☆G would love Saori back. They’re all still friends, she’s still affiliated with iDOL Street, and she regularly attends their concerts. It’s totally happening!
I understand your explanation about Ayaka, kinda. Still it seems more like an internal problem, not so much one for the fans. And if I sepeak for myself: I can live with a member less qualified, if her personality is to my tastes. But I agree that thiswouln’t work for idol street groups. But keep usupdated on the process. I like to learn about the different ways things are handeled in idol business.
Regarding Saori, I am totally on your side. She was one of my favourite members in S☆G. Maybe we can see her + Makochan + Yuka some time together in a musical about – idols, of course :D