My iDOL Street predictions failed spectacularly and embarrassingly. That’s the risk you take when making crazy predictions.
If you haven’t heard, Saori will be graduating SUPER☆GiRLS in February and Naapon and Risa will be joining. Saori-nu, more like Saori-noooooo. Anyone who is a fan of hers knew it was only a matter of time before she started pursuing her ultimate dream of performing in
erotic musicals, but I thought the earliest she would graduate would be after their 4th anniversary (June 2014). I plan on going to Japan in March or April and again in the summer so I’ll never be able to see her again (unless I watch one of her erotic musicals). Not the end of the world but I do think she is one of the #BestIdolsEver and #totallyworthyofbeinghashtagged.
Fourth Group is still coming though. New prediction: Fourth Group will debut at the Sutorigu 2 finale on January 26, with a possible announcement a few days earlier on January 24. I was stupid to think they would announce Fourth Group at the Christmas concert since that would take attention away from GEM’s debut. Unfortunately Naapon and Risa joining SUPER☆GiRLS hurts Fourth Group (although I was thinking it would be sadly ironic if they also hurt SUPER☆GiRLS). Since Naapon was my 3rd ranked Street-sei member and Risa was 7th, I’ve reworked the ultimate Fourth Group lineup. It’s new and not-improved:
Previously I predicted 12 members, but I’m downgrading to 9 because I think the group is already top heavy and adding more members will just be subtraction by addition. Maybe I’m insane for not pushing Runa or Ruka, but I think both are too young and there is something diabolical about Runa.
Although the SUPER☆GiRLS news has set in, I’m still on the fence about the changes. Naapon has a lot of potential, although I honestly feel that most of the girls in GEM are above her level. I think Naapon’s greatest asset is her fearlessness – so many members of Street-sei are frustratingly shy and unwilling to take risks, but she’s a total free-spirit and borderline insane. That’s why I kind of like Akari. She looks like an old lady trapped in a little kid’s body, but she’s original. Kyonchan and Natsuka also tried to break out of their shells (although I don’t think they were as successful). Not that SUPER☆GiRLS needed “fixing,” but I think Naapon can infuse a new type of energy into the group. I just hope she changes her hairstyle before her debut, because she looks so much better with longer hair. On a slightly related note, Hikaru has had short hair for over a year now and unfortunately it doesn’t seem like she is changing it anytime soon. I think Risa is a little more polarizing for fans because on the surface she doesn’t add anything to the group that isn’t already there. I wrote this a while ago, but I think it’s obvious someone high up in i-Street has been pushing Risa – first for GEM and now SUPER☆GiRLS. She has improved a lot in the past few months though, not just her singing but also her stage presence. That’s worth 3 points. And she’s gotten much better looking. That’s worth 20 points. I think Rihona and Risa have improved the most since Sutorigu 1 – which kind of makes me think Rihona would have been a safer (and better) choice. I’m not convinced of Risa’s upside or the benefits she can bring to the group. There are other girls in Street-sei who are more talented (Haachin), better looking (Haachin), and more interesting (Haachin). I think fan confidence would be much higher if they added Rihona as a third new member to make an even twelve. I think it’s a missed opportunity, but I’m going to be open minded about both and obviously I hope it works out.
Color coding prediction: Naapon will be blue and Risa will be green.